Experts are split on exactly when we can expect a downturn to occur: The percent of delinquent mortgages in Phoenix is 0.6%, which is lower than the national value of 1.1%. In late 2014, Phoenix only had 687 properties for rent listed on Airbnb. https://www.mashvisor.com/blog/arizona-real-estate-market-2018-the-place-to-invest-this-year Evaluate the specifics of the Phoenix housing market at the time you intend to purchase. That means there are even fewer properties for sale today than there were a year ago. Real estate prices are deeply cyclical and much of it is dependent on factors you can’t control. They’re choosing to rent over buying a single-family home or an apartment. On the other hand, Phoenix home prices are now only back to where they were at the top of the real estate bubble in 2006, 12 years ago. The area contains a mix of families, young professionals, and retirees. The 10 Strongest Housing Markets Into Spring 2021. Phoenix Housing Market and Real Estate Price Forecast, Short-Term Property Price Prognosis for Next Months and Year Short-term real estate market and home value forecast … The average sales price is up +23.1% year-over-year while the year-over-year median sales price is also up +17.5%. Disclaimer: This story contains third-party predictions and forecasts for the Phoenix-area real estate market. 2021 Housing Crash – My Prediction. In September of 2019, the difference was $75,153 With the chronic shortage of re-sale homes, many buyers are turning to new-builds. The median sales price in Maricopa County for Q1-2020 was $309,990, up by + 12.7% from last year. https://www.phoenix.gov/sustainability/transportation According to the latest data from Redfin, the housing market in Phoenix, Arizona had about a 1.4-month supply of homes for sale as of August 2020. Job growth has been vigorous for the past few years while single-family building permit activity has been relatively modest. There are secondary campuses in downtown Phoenix, northwest Phoenix, and neighboring Glendale. Housing market predictions for 2021: Factors to consider Factor #1: The real estate market. Despite relatively steady home price appreciation in May, the U.S. housing market is on the precipice of an extended price slump, according to a CoreLogic report released Tuesday. “The good momentum we saw at the start of the year has helped to somewhat insulate the housing market from the coronavirus’ negative impact on buyer and seller confidence across the U.S.,” Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist, said in the housing trends report. There are several other reasons to consider investing in Phoenix real estate. And there’s plenty of those to be found in the Phoenix metro area. https://armls.com/docs/2020-APRIL-STATwith-commentary.pdf The median home is worth around $177,000 and came with a property tax bill of around $1400, well below what you’d pay in Texas. If this price forecast is correct, the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2018. New residential market predictions from Savills have revealed continuing high levels of activity in the housing market. http://capstonecapitalusa.com/the-most-friendly-8-landlord-states As of October 6, the company’s website stated: “Phoenix home values have gone up 11.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.1% within the next year.”. They went on to predict that 2021 would bring the first decline in nine years, and by April 2021 the national price gain would turn negative, down 1.3 percent. There are several sports teams located in Phoenix and a wealth of tourist attractions. Short sales dropped -52.0% year-over-year. September recorded the highest median sales price ever reported, the highest average sales price ever reported and the highest sales volume for any September in the past. High-tech house flippers such as Zillow are using algorithms to reshape the stodgy, $26 trillion market for U.S. residential real estate. Despite home prices increasing 4.8% year over year in May, a report by CoreLogic predicts home prices will stall over the summer and estimates a 6.6% decline by … Click here to read past editions of Zillow’s Market Pulse updates. However, there are some restrictions on short-term rentals. Phoenix Housing Market Forecast with Real Estate Prices for 2021: February 2021: Open: 258674: Min: 203644: Max: 316930: Phoenix Housing Market Forecast with Real Estate Prices for 2021: March 2021: Open: 259521: Min: 200199: Max: 312423: Phoenix Housing Market Forecast with Real Estate Prices for 2021: April 2021: Open: 259589: Min: 205838: Max: 316636 According to Zillow, the housing market forecast for 2021 has improved but lingering economic uncertainty may temper some of the predictions. Moody’s Analytics, who develop mortgage risk software for Canadian banks, predicts a 10% drop in Calgary and Edmonton. These 13 housing crash factors will shape the housing market. The neighborhoods should be close to basic amenities, public services, schools, and shopping malls. That’s well above the nation’s growth rate for that same timeframe. The housing data provider’s May Home Price Index and HPI Forecast report predicts a year-over-year home price decrease of 6.6% by May 2021. In terms of months of supply, Phoenix can become a buyer’s real estate market if the supply increases to more than five months of inventory. Before the pandemic hit the nation the supply of new housing was failing to keep up with demand. We earn a commission for products purchased through some links in this article. Similarly, if you are an investor, Scottsdale has a track record of being one of the best long term real estate investments in the nation. Meanwhile, hiring activity in the labor market continues to stall. But since then, it has been a steady upward climb. This growth fueled by job growth has finally consumed the glut of re-sale housing created during the bubble years. Low inventory and low mortgage rates are two of the driving factors within the Phoenix real estate market, as of fall 2020. Annually, the number of previously-owned single-family homes are three to four times greater than new single-family home sales. Low inventory is forcing those buyers to compete, sometimes fiercely, for desirable properties and locations. The accuracy of this forecast for Phoenix is 74% and it is predicting a positive trend. The forecast document will be made available in late January 2021 and will be delivered by email to the address used on your order. High rise developments and mixed-use projects have been built, and several more are underway. It also means that the market is very competitive and difficult for buyers. A cheaper neighborhood in Phoenix might not be the best place to live in. The change in home prices for Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ is shown below for the three-time periods (data up to 3rd Quarter, 2018). They’re also two of the key factors influencing those positive housing forecasts mentioned above. Total residential housing starts hit 1.27 million last year and are forecast to rise again to 1.31 million in 2020, before returning to the 1.27 million range by 2023. #2. Based on the last two Las Vegas housing market predictions for 2021, it’s possible that the city may go through a market shift – from a very hot seller’s market, closer to a buyer’s market. Quartzite, Arizona in particular draws two million snowbirds and tourists. According to the Veros real estate market forecast, metro areas in Idaho, Washington and Arizona are expected to show strength over the coming months. And that’s not surprising, when you look at the current supply-and-demand situation in this market. Alhambra, where the average rent goes for $942/mo. However, it was quite expected that social distancing, higher unemployment, and lower overall economic activity would constrain real estate activity in the near term. The snowbird movement is somewhat different than the conventional tourist market. Olympia, Washington Arizona has been lowering its capital gains tax rate, as well. With many sellers remaining on the sideline and a decline in housing starts, inventory will remain constricted. According to Neigborhoodscout.com, a national real estate data provider, three and four-bedroom single-family detached are the most common housing units in Phoenix. In many ways, the real estate market in Phoenix, Arizona is behaving like the COVID-19 pandemic never even happened. Buy a house, rehab it, and build a granny flat, and you have two rental properties for not much more than the price of one. What’s Really Causing the High Rents? The favorable living conditions have, furthermore, comforted real estate investors and buyers to invest in Arizona real estate market. The city stands out for its sixty-plus RV parks. Well, as you might’ve guessed, behavior change like the social distancing effort is causing some market delay. There are easily 100,000 college students renting in the Phoenix housing market. Real (non-stimulus) income will stay flat or decrease slightly as the economy ramps up. That’s according to data collected by Zillow. So there’s a lot going on here, but in the end it comes down to the usual market fundamentals. The forecasts center around a baseline prediction of a 4.9% decrease in United States GDP in 2020 and a subsequent 5.7% increase in 2021. The slow recovery of the national housing market has taken a decade. This can be compared to 2020 when around 6 million of the population failed to pay their rent. The 10,303 home sales were not only the highest number of sales ever in July, but one of the highest monthly totals ever. There are also a wide variety of economic and political factors that can and do impact real estate markets. Chandler is bordered by the cities Tempe, Mesa, and Phoenix. It is quite evident that the ongoing pandemic has not had any major impact on Phoenix's housing market. According to Burning Glass Technologies, there are about 20% fewer jobs posted in the U.S. than there were in early January. The Phoenix housing market has had a big year so far, despite COVID. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. This thorough report on the US rental housing market for 2020 and 2021 offers stats, insights, and trends happening as we head toward 2021. The average Phoenix house price was $325K last month, up 19.3% since last year. Despite the rise in new listings, the environment is extremely difficult for homebuyers in metro Phoenix. This means that many snowbirds end up staying permanently in the Phoenix housing market. A cheaper neighborhood should be determined by these factors – Overall Cost Of Living, Rent To Income Ratio, and Median Home Value To Income Ratio. The median home price in Phoenix is lower than many other similar-sized metro areas across the U.S. And the warm climate appeals to many East Coast and Midwest buyers who are tired of long, cold winters. The cost of living is a factor here. As of early October 2020, the company was reporting an 11.4% increase in the median home value for this market. Earlier this month, the property valuation company Veros Real Estate Solutions published a housing market forecast that ranked the ten strongest housing markets in the U.S. In short, Phoenix remains a sizzling hot seller's real estate market in the current cycle. During 2018 and 2019, Arizona was one of the top three states in the nation for population growth. Remote workers who can live anywhere are increasingly eyeing homes in the suburbs as opposed to crowded cities. As Affordability Drops, the Renter Population May Increase In the past ten years, the annual real estate appreciation rate has amounted to 7.46%, according to NeighborhoodScout.com. The demand for housing has completely outpaced the supply. It's still a seller's real estate market in Phoenix, but there are fewer bidding wars on the most affordable homes (less than $500,000) on the market. Another housing market prediction for 2020 and 2021 is that the economy will continue to suffer, but businesses will begin to reopen (and they already are!). An estimated 300,000 people stay all winter before returning home. The city also recognizes the need for affordable housing, and they allow people to build and rent out ADUs as affordable housing, especially if the property is within walking distance of public transit. Lender-owned sales decreased by -29.3% year-over-year. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Phoenix Real Estate Market Forecast. The think tank says the housing market “defied gravity” in August, with … #1: A recession is possible in 2020, and likely by the end of 2021; but it won’t be caused by the real estate market this time. Moreover, it's even harder to take out a mortgage for those who have student loan debt. The same things that attract many people to Phoenix as snowbirds cause many to retire here permanently. Today’s rental market has an unfulfilled demand from renters … That’s a much higher rate of growth than the national average for the same timeframe, and higher than many other metro areas across the U.S. The trend for median days on market in Maricopa County, AZ is flat since last month, and slightly down since last year. The green shaded area shows Zillow’s home-price predictions for the Phoenix housing market, going into 2021. This is good news for real estate investors looking to buy a rental property in a strong housing market. It is now clear that the pandemic could only pause sales, which in turn created a huge pent up demand. Arizona, unlike California, allows landlords to serve an unconditional quit notice. You’ll see better than average returns on the average Scottsdale real estate investment property, and its value will be bolstered by a variety of factors. 36% of the households in Phoenix are renter-occupied while 63% are owner-occupied. Are prices going to crash in 2021? However, Phoenix itself is massive. Tucson like Phoenix sees a massive influx of snowbirds, retirees who flock here during the winter. appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada. Two-bedroom apartments have increased by $122 (9.3%). And the city is almost certain to approve it because they want denser development. The highest growth in home values in the Phoenix Real Estate Market over a three year period was 81% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2006. Homes in the Phoenix housing market are approaching the 2006 record. In fact, recent forecasts for the Phoenix-area real estate market suggest that home prices will continue to rise at an above-average pace well into 2021. Joseph Goodhue 310-980-0571 [email protected] Hilton & Hyland DRE02006693 The biggest mistake buyers make is sitting around waiting for sale prices to decline while their potential mortgage payment plummets. The Metro Phoenix housing market is extremely strong and has been hitting a number of new records in the last few days. https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/percent-taxes-pay-selling-real-estate-17380.html, Cheap property All information presented should be independently verified through the references given below. Overall, retail and food spending has been down since January, which is a direct cause of the pandemic and subsequent economic slowdown. At the same time, the industry is adapting to the current environment by conducting business using technologies such as virtual showings and e-signing to help buyers and sellers with their housing needs in the face of these challenges. In this blog I'm going to talk about the 2021 Property Market Crash. Despite home prices increasing 4.8% year over year in May, a report by CoreLogic predicts home prices will stall over the summer and estimates a 6.6% decline by May of 2021… The source of this report is the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. The national economy is super strong and the number of people moving into Phoenix is finally strong again after tanking during the Great Recession. The Greater Phoenix real estate market is on fire. Arizona Regional MLS includes Maricopa County and most of Pinal County. Pending sales volume will recover to about 97% of Q4 2019 levels by the end of 2021. Maricopa County Housing Market Report Q3-2020. CoreLogic expects Las Vegas home prices to drop 11.3% by June 2021, while places like Lake Havasu, Ariz. — where coronavirus cases have resurged most — face the greatest risk of falling housing values. They expect house values in the area to continue climbing for the foreseeable future. The Zillow Buyer-Seller Index (BSI) considers Phoenix a sizzling hot seller’s real estate market. According to a Redfin report published over the summer, Phoenix is one of the top destinations for relocation-minded home buyers who are looking at properties in cities other than where they live. Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Phoenix turnkey properties. As they continue to compete for potential investment properties at the lower end of the market, the challenges for first-time homebuyers will remain. NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. Distressed sales accounted for 0.4% of total sales, the same as the previous month. As of September 2020, the average rent for an apartment in Phoenix, AZ is $1330 which is a 7.22% increase from last year when the average rent was $1234, and a 0.53% increase from last month when the average rent was $1323. Other types of housing that are prevalent in Phoenix include large apartment complexes, duplexes, rowhouses, and homes converted to apartments. In March and April, there was a year-over-year increase of 13.2% and 11.1% respectively in the reported median prices. This creates an unusually diverse opportunity for those considering investing in the Phoenix real estate market. Population growth is particularly high within the Phoenix metro area. It also accounts for those positive predictions and forecasts for the Phoenix real estate market extending into 2021. Experts are split on exactly when we can expect a downturn to occur: As of early October 2020, the median home value for Phoenix, Arizona was around $288,000. Here’s what could happen to house prices, transaction levels and regional markets next. However, Chandler has several points in its favor that make it a better choice for real estate investors than surrounding cities. If you are looking to make a profit, you don’t want to buy the most expensive property on the Phoenix real estate market and expect to make a good profit on rents. As of July 27th, the multi-family rent … The Phoenix housing market is one of the hottest markets for 2020. September began with listings at 28% of the 3 year average of 324 (from 2017-2019) (source: valleywidehomes.com). Some housing markets could experience steady but slower home-price growth over the next year, despite our current economic woes. High-tech house flippers such as Zillow are using algorithms to reshape the stodgy, $26 trillion market for U.S. residential real estate. Demand would raise the price of your Phoenix investment property and you should be able to get a good return on your investment over the long term. Phoenix Rental Trends: According to RentCafe, the average rent for an apartment in Phoenix is $1,141, a 10% increase compared to the previous year. And that’s not going to happen. After all, a buyer’s market is characterized by both rising inventory and dropping prices. This amounts to an annual real estate appreciation of 9.14%, which puts Phoenix in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation. The highest forecast in a September Reuters poll of 16 economists was price growth of 2% in 2021, while the lowest prediction called for a 13% drop. What are the Phoenix real estate market predictions for 2021? The neighborhoods in Phoenix must be safe to live in and should have a low crime rate. https://metrorealtyphx.com/phoenix-real-estate-market-report-this-month Although the information is believed to be reliable, Norada Real Estate Investments makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees, either express or implied, as to whether the information presented is accurate, reliable, or current. Pending home sales will bottom out in Q2 before beginning to improve near the end of Q2 2020. https://azbigmedia.com/downtown-phoenix-development-makes-it-harder-to-find-a-place-to-live/, Granny flats/ADUs While California and Florida are seen as hot real estate markets, one of the major attractions of the Phoenix real estate market is the affordable real estate. Only 2% of the apartments fall in the price range of more than $2,000/month. This can have an adverse effect on the housing market as many people will call you to make their rent or mortgage payments. Maricopa County is a seller's market, which means that there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available. All of which bolsters home values. To accommodate aging in place, they’ve loosened the rules on building “accessory dwelling units”, commonly known as mother-in-law suites. And it did happen from May onwards. Social-distancing requirements are also likely to hold construction back in the coming months. In a balanced real estate market, it would take about five to six months for the supply to dwindle to zero. Continue Reading Show full articles without "Continue Reading" button for {0} hours. The … Suppose you buy a house to renovate and rent out. https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/catherine-reagor/2020/05/28/coronavirus-arizona-phoenix-housing-market-success-2020-pandemic-impact/5223134002/, Foreclosures Tax rate, where the rent prices are unlikely to fall to the Phoenix housing market again climbing the! 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